Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been rapid and dramatic, but the likely economic consequences will be slower to materialise and by nature less spectacular. The war itself is terribly tragic, first and foremost for the Ukrainian people, but also for the Russian people – many of whom do not support it. These brief notes will focus on some of the myriad snippets of news and analysis that are likely to impact financial markets. Some positive news: President Zelensky of Ukraine s

Equities were sharply lower across the globe following Russia's attack on Ukraine. Risk assets sold off by around 3% and most share markets are today around 10-15% below recent peaks. Traditional safe havens such as the US dollar and government bonds have rallied. Substantial economic sanctions on Russia from Europe, the United States, Australia and other allies are certain to follow, with the consequences of a protracted conflict in Ukraine still largely unknown. The geopoli

Growth will slow in 2022 but settle at an above-trend rate for the second consecutive year. We expect the US to outperform Europe and Japan where the fiscal drag is expected to be significant. Growth will also slow in emerging markets led by China and Brazil but offset somewhat by stronger growth out of India, projected to again be the fastest-growing major economy in 2022. The current inflation episode will fade in 2022 as the largest surge in demand since WWII eases while s

The lower for longer theme faced its greatest challenge yet last year. The tussle between labour and capital for the spoils of growth was writ large with the crisis that hit the poorest cohorts of society the hardest while big business got bigger. The move to address income and wealth inequalities was elevated as a result. While much has changed in the past two years, we tend to be of the view that the structural trends that were driving the environment of lower growth, lower